All three operators now have paired and unpaired spectrum, but will wait until 2015 for commercial FDD, and 2020 for sub-1GHz
However, it seems likely they will have to wait until 2020 to gain usable spectrum in 700MHz, coveted for its long range and indoor penetration, which greatly reduces the cost of rural build-outs and initial, coverage-driven LTE projects.
Initially, then, all three companies will have higher band spectrum, both paired and unpaired, though it could take a year or even two for the FDD trial licences to be converted into commercial ones (there was a wait of about two years for the same process in TDD, though the huge 'trial' networks which China Mobile constructed during that time were hardly just testbeds.
The length of the wait will be significant for the two smaller operators, whose 3G networks are FDD, and which would prefer to lead with paired frequencies in LTE too, adding TDD at a later stage, for capacity, when the ecosystem has matured. However, Mobile's lobbying for TDD-first means they will have to adopt a hybrid TDD/FDD strategy, a fact which should stimulate the equipment and device ecosystems - another key Mobile objective - but could also make a RAN sharing deal between all three players more likely.
Talks about such an agreement are reportedly ongoing, and the long wait for 700MHz, which improves cost efficiencies for LTE, may be another incentive to come to a deal.
Last week, China Telecom was granted a trial FDD licence so that it can start building networks in major cities immediately, and Unicom and Mobile quickly received their own similar allocations. The bands were not specified but was certainly not sub-1GHz.
China faces the same tensions and trade-offs between the broadcasters, incumbent in the 700MHz spectrum, and the mobile operators, eager for the digital dividend in frequencies which are particularly suited to affordable wide area coverage. The head of China's broadcasting regulator, GAPPRFT, Jiang Wenbo, said this week that it will not complete the handover of the 700MHz spectrum until 2020.